Japan’s Real Estate Bubble. A History Lesson

The Nikkei took a tumble this week, but those of us sitting in the US might not have noticed that it had run up from 11,400 or so a year ago to well over 16,000 earlier this month. But it’s still far short of the all time height of 38,957.44 on December 29, 1989. Why is this interesting to me? Two reasons. First, recall that in the collapse of the Nikkei in the early 1990s also spurred on the collapse of the real estate market in Los Angeles as commercial investors pulled out. Second, the collapse of the Nikkei was paralleled by the collapse of Japan’s housing market, as the International Herald Tribune reminds us. Neither stock market nor real estate prices go upward forever. 14 years after Japan’s housing market burst, it still hasn’t recovered. Obviously I need to do some more research into this condition though. An powerful country’s stock market and real estate market goes bust, and yet it keeps on going. 5 years ago our stock market went bust, but an artificial housing boom fueled by low interest rates and questionable lending practices helped the U. S. economy keep going. But what happens if that goes away? What then?

The Nikkei took a tumble this week, but those of us sitting in the US might not have noticed that it had run up from 11,400 or so a year ago to well over 16,000 earlier this month. But it’s still far short of the all time height of 38,957.44 on December 29, 1989. Why is this interesting to me? Two reasons. First, recall that in the collapse of the Nikkei in the early 1990s also spurred on the collapse of the real estate market in Los Angeles as commercial investors pulled out. Second, the collapse of the Nikkei was paralleled by the collapse of Japan’s housing market, as the International Herald Tribune reminds us. Neither stock market nor real estate prices go upward forever. 14 years after Japan’s housing market burst, it still hasn’t recovered. Obviously I need to do some more research into this condition though. An powerful country’s stock market and real estate market goes bust, and yet it keeps on going. 5 years ago our stock market went bust, but an artificial housing boom fueled by low interest rates and questionable lending practices helped the U. S. economy keep going. But what happens if that goes away? What then?